BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes today expressed a bleak outlook for the near future of Bitcoin’s price. On his X Hayes profile revealed his personal market maneuver, stating, “BTC is heavy, aiming for below $50k this weekend. I took a shameless short position. Pray for my soul because I’m a degen.”

Why Hayes Likely Expects Bitcoin Price Crash

Although Hayes refrained from providing a clear reason for his forecast, the timing of his release closely aligns with a string of key U.S. economic indicators due out this Friday. U.S. employment data has been a key factor for market analysts recently. Analysts Kobeissi Letter, commenting In this regard, there has been a growing influence of unemployment data on Federal Reserve policy.

They explained via X that “prediction markets are currently pricing in 4 rate cuts in 2024, or 100 basis points of cuts, for the first time since the August 5 crash, according to Kalshi. For the past 2 days, prediction markets have been pricing in an additional rate cut in 2024. This is happening as labor market data has been deteriorating across the board. It is clear that unemployment data is quickly becoming a primary driver of Fed policy, alongside inflation.”

Analysts believe that today’s employment report will be a key factor in deciding whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 bps or 25 bps. The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 17-18, 2024. “If the employment report is in line with expectations or better, we believe there will be a 25 bps rate cut. Interest rate expectations seem to have turned too dovish again,” analysts at The Kobeissi believe.

Interestingly, the worsening job market scenario was just underscored by data released earlier this week. The number of job vacancies in the US, as per the JOLT survey, fell to 7.67 million in July from the previous 7.91 million in June, marking the lowest level since January 2021. Analysts had been predicting a figure of around 8.09 million, making the actual figure significantly below expectations.

Since March 2022, job openings have fallen by an alarming 4.51 million, or 38%, which The Kobeissi Letter says is a “HUGE reduction.” They added: “The most notable decline was in construction job openings, which fell to 248,000 in July, the lowest since October 2020. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell to 1.07 in July, in line with 2018 levels.”

This backdrop of weakening employment data and revised economic forecasts has undoubtedly contributed to the sour sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Hayes seems to be expecting more bad macro data, which he believes could push Bitcoin below $50,000.

Is $46,000 the bottom?

Also joining the chorus of bearish prospects was renowned trader Peter Brandt, who presented his technical analysis, observing what he calls an “inverted expanding triangle or megaphone pattern” on the weekly Bitcoin chart. Brandt illuminated There is a possibility that Bitcoin will test the lower limit near $46,000, which highlights the prevalence of selling pressure over buying interest in the market.

He emphasized, “This is called an inverted expanding triangle or megaphone. A test of the lower boundary would be at 46,000 or above. A massive push to a new BTC ATH is needed to get this bull market back on track. Selling is stronger than buying in this pattern.”

At the time of going to press, the BTC price was $55,767.

Featured image is from YouTube, chart is from TradingView.com