Ethereum’s recent rebound has brought the $10,000 bull market debate back into focus, but cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says ETH has yet to confirm a trend reversal on the higher time frame. In a May 7 market update, the analyst argued that Ethereum remains trapped below major resistance until it can reclaim the $2,800 area and prove the move with a successful retest.
Kevin’s core argument is straightforward: ETH has risen from a local low near $1,700, but this move still resembles a rebound from the trend rather than the beginning of a sustained bull market phase. He said market sentiment had changed from bearish to more neutral as the price reached resistance, something he often sees during aid rallies.
“Is the bull market back? Have we returned to the uptrend on higher time frames? Is ETH now heading to 10,000? Is the bottom of the bear market coming?” he asked, shaping the debate currently dominating cryptocurrency social media. His response was cautious. While some investors are already calling for a up-to-date uptrend, Kevin said the chart has not yet provided the confirmation bulls need.
The analyst says Ethereum still needs a breakout of $2,800
For Kevin, the level to watch is $2,800. Until Ethereum moves back above this zone, approaches $2,900 or $3,000 and then retests the recovered moving averages as support, he said the market structure remains unresolved.
“Until it gets back above $2,800, until it gets back to $2,900 or $3k, it can get rejected there, come back down and retest those key moving averages, the gold pocket is holding it and starting to climb higher. Until that happens, it’s still a higher counter-trend rally within a longer-term downtrend,” he said.
He pointed to Ethereum’s interaction with the 100 EMA, 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA, saying that ETH had moved into this resistance cluster and was already showing signs of rejection. He noticed that several daily candles were carrying vast wicks upwards, which he interpreted as a weakening of the gains rather than pure accumulation.
The analyst also questioned whether Ethereum’s current structure resembles a major bottom. He said the earlier bullish reversal showed more constructive accumulation, including rounding structures, stronger retests and cleaner transitions back above key averages. In contrast, the current move has been “weak” due to low volume, muted money flow, inflows at delicate spots, constrained whale money flow, and insufficient upside expansion.
Bitcoin continues to be the signal leader
Kevin emphasized that Ethereum should not be analyzed in isolation. Even in the case of ETH, he said Bitcoin remains the first chart to watch when assessing whether the cryptocurrency has indeed returned to its uptrend on higher time frames.
“When it comes to altcoin analysis, the first thing you should do is look at the Bitcoin chart. The second thing you should do is look at the USDT dominance chart. The third thing you should do is look at the altcoin vs. Bitcoin pairing chart, and then from there you can then analyze the USD pair yourself,” he said.
This framework matters because he believes an Ethereum breakout event hinges not only on ETH regaining resistance, but also on Bitcoin confirming a broader market reversal. He noted that Bitcoin is testing its 200-day SMA, which makes the upcoming sessions essential for the broader crypto trend.
Kevin said he remains willing to pivot if the charts change. In his view, a correct bullish setup would involve a break above the major moving averages, a pullback that holds them as support, and then a up-to-date rally. This would represent a trend change that would justify more aggressive upside positioning.
At the time of publication, the price of ETH was $2,283.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
