This article is also available in Spanish.
Cryptocurrency analyst Bob Loukas has released a fresh one video analysis titled “No Bull.” In the video, Loukas delves into the current state of the Bitcoin market, addressing growing concerns about the possibility of the bull market being canceled.
Loukas starts by acknowledging the extended period of Bitcoin price consolidation. He senses that “some fear is creeping into the market right now,” partly due to factors such as “the unavailability of a Bitcoin ETF for quite some time” and halvings that “come and go” without leading to significant upward price movement.
Is the Bitcoin Bull Run over?
Loukas notes that while classic markets are performing well – “the stock market is hitting all-time highs seemingly every week” and “even gold is hitting all-time highs” – Bitcoin continues to “weak” and altcoins are “essentially dying out” . snail-paced death.” He notes that “the only thing that really works is really speculative memecoins,” contributing to the negative sentiment in the crypto space.
However, he believes that this development is “sort of normal,” emphasizing that despite these challenges, Bitcoin remains “close to all-time highs from the previous cycle.” Discussing the eight months of Bitcoin price consolidation, Loukas interprets this period as a bullish sign. “Eight months of consolidation is a really sanguine result, if the right time comes in a four-year cycle. The moods are correct, they have been reset; basics, macro, I think they all look good,” he says.
Loukas further emphasizes that the market has passed “23 months” since the lows of the last cycle in November 2022, “just before the 24-month or 2-year anniversary of this cycle”, which is expected to end around November-December 2026. He admits, that “quite a bit of fear has crept into this market” after a “very bullish, very tumultuous period” from the September-October 2023 ETF approval leak through to the March 2024 peak.
According to Loukas, one of the main concerns is that Bitcoin hit its last all-time high seven months ago in March, and since then, “we’ve been making these lower highs every month, and also to some extent a lower low structure.” This has caused concern among investors who “entered the market way too late, waiting for confirmation,” only to be “locked out of the market when the market moved for five months in a row,” with no opportunity to buy during the decline.
He points out that many investors “later came across a group of altcoins that are now down by 50, 60, 70%”, which has led to a situation where, despite the fact that the price of Bitcoin “is still rising about 3 times from the lows ”, many people feel like they “got no value out of this cycle” or even “lost money during this period”. Loukas considers this scenario “quite normal from the point of view of the cycle structure.”
He emphasizes that during this phase of the rally, the market has not experienced a “typical 30% drop at any given point in time,” with the “biggest declines” being “mostly temporary and previously only around 20% from peak to trough.” setting a fresh high.” This unusual behavior “altered many people” and “made it difficult for them to get in” because “they wanted to buy in a crisis that never actually happened.”
Loukas suggests that the current consolidation is a necessary step to “completely reset the mood and prepare for the next phase of the four-year cycle.” He finds it significant that Bitcoin “has been sitting here for 23 months, about 20% off all-time highs from the last four-year cycle in 2021,” which makes it appear “more prepared for the next phase of the crisis.” four-year cycle than anything else.”
It also makes comparisons to previous cycles, noting that from the December 2018 cycle low to the first point where Bitcoin made a fresh high, “it took 23 months to reach and exceed the highest price level in the four-year cycle.” Similar patterns have been seen in earlier cycles, with time frames of “around 25 months” and “around 22 months” to reach fresh all-time highs. In contrast, the current cycle reached that milestone “in just 16 months, much sooner,” which he attributes largely to ETF news that “forced buyers to get into the cycle earlier than usual.”
Loukas believes this accelerated timeline has created a energetic where “we have to rotate a lot of coins now,” allowing “many whales, many veterans” to “unlock” and “exit and rotate,” while “institutional players, players with larger accounts collected these coins during this period.” He sees this as “more a matter of timing than anything else”, interpreting the current period as a process in which the market “finally erases all the bullish sentiment” from the previous phase, thus allowing “a complete decoupling from one phase of the cycle to this phase of the cycle” – essentially a “mid-cycle decline.”
When will the BTC price break?
Overall, Loukas remains largely sanguine: “So far in this four-year cycle, I don’t see anything that changes this trajectory, nothing in the profile or structure that tells me that this cycle is in any way different from previous cycles.”
He cites several factors supporting his bullish outlook, including “massive inflows into Bitcoin, mainly by institutional players” and the absorption of enormous sell-offs by entities such as the “German government” and “US government”, which did not significantly affect the price. Loukas emphasizes that “the price has only dropped by 20%; “It’s holding up well.” He also mentions that “the EFF still exists; this will be pushed through the channels of independent advisors” and “it is time; macro, the fundamentals are there.”
Loukas is particularly excited about cyclical patterns and notes that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explains that “the first year surprises everyone, and that gives you a lot of opportunities. The second year appears to have stalled as it consolidates the first year of gains. And the third year is the year of mania. And now, starting next month, we’re going to have a year of mania.”
He predicts that “in the next 90 days… we will break out of this consolidating range; We will rise to the top.” He believes that once this happens, Bitcoin will “not look back,” predicting a period where it “may only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green candles.” While he refrains from giving specific target prices, he admits that hitting “somewhere between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”
Loukas emphasizes that the focus should be on “time and sentiment”, aiming for a move “in the range where previous cycles have peaked” that has been “very consistent around the 35th month since the last low”. Such a timing would place the projected peak around “October 2025,” giving “another 12 months until the expected or projected peak.” He notes that this is not set in stone and that the peak may come “three, four, five months earlier” because market movements “can take many different forms.”
As for the immediate future, Loukas admits that the next two months are “a little unclear” and “there are a lot of factors being taken into account at the moment.” He cites the upcoming US elections scheduled for November 4, mentioning that “Trump and the GOP have really been pushing for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin” and that “the market will certainly react very, very favorably to a Republican Party victory purely because of their stance on cryptocurrencies.” However, he explains that he thinks it “doesn’t matter at all” who wins because Bitcoin has thrived even when “governments have been very hostile towards it.”
Loukas speculates that the market may be “entering a sideways trend in November” and that a significant move may not occur until after the election. He suggests that “we still have about three to four weeks of some sideways trends” and he would be “very surprised if this market could break above $70,000 before the election here in the US.”
At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $60,699.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com