Key results:

• Bitcoin tends to collect significantly when the low lever meets with a stronger than expected retail sales and Hawkish Federal Reserve signals.

• In three separate 7-week Bitcoin periods increased by 50% to 84%.

• The upcoming speeches from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could bring the price of Bitcoins.

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies are often associated with the fears of investors’ inflation or data that exceed the expectations of economic growth, but the clear signals of the upcoming rally are infrequent. However, the combination of three independent events converged in historically with BTC prices by 50% or more.

Significant rallies of Bitcoins occur when expectations regarding the US federal policy ease, the cryptographic market lever is low, and forceful retail data support stubborn rush. In the last speech of these three events, Bitcoin increased from USD 40,000 to 73,500 USD in seven weeks at the beginning of 2024.

Comparable profits were recorded at the beginning of 2023, when the same three drivers equalized, driving Bitcoins from USD 16,700 to USD 25,100 in seven weeks. The third example comes from July 2021, the culmination of the price escalate by 76%.

Bitcoin gained 84% from January 25, 2024 to March 13, 2024.

After stagnation of nearly USD 43,000 in December 2023, the Bitcoin price tested USD 48,000 at the beginning of January 2024. After a failed breakthrough, there was a keen decrease to USD 37,800 at the end of January, as the seven -weekly stubborn trend began. The key factor at this stage was the extremely low level of Futures financing, of 4% per year.

Other factors influencing the reversal of prices were the detail sales data in the USA for December 2023, issued on January 17, 2024, exceeded the expectations, growing by 0.6% of the month of the month compared to the 0.4% forecast and the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on January 31, 2024, which signaled a stronger cash attitude, without any of them, without any direct percentage rate.

Bitcoin gained 50% from January 3, 2023 to February 20, 2023.

Before this rally, Bitcoin consolidated below USD 18,000 for two months, which resulted in minimal demand for long positions, reflected by almost zero Futures financing rate.

The landscape changed on January 3, 2023, when Binance financing rate increased to 50% in four days. This coincided with stronger than expected data on retail sales for January 2023, which increased by 3% month month, ahead of the consensus by 1.9%. In particular, Fed Powell chairman also suggested a closer monetary policy to combat inflation during his speech in Sveriges Riksbank on January 10, 2023.

Bitcoin 76% Rally: July 20, 2021 – September 7, 2021

From July 20, 2021 to September 7, 2021, Bitcoin gained 76%. The price of Bitcoin dropped from 40,000 to lower USD 30,000 in the previous month, suppressing market moods. Suddenly the annual Bitcoin financing rate increased from 0% to 37% in two weeks, while data on retail sales in the US for June 2021 surprised economists by an escalate of 0.6%, despite the fact that the consensus predicted a 0.4% decrease.

During this period, Powell’s comments on the economic symposium of Jackson Hole of 27 August 2021 indicated a potential reduction in purchases of central bank assets, which was a move aimed at limiting inflation.

Related: Ray Dalio says the global cash order “on the edge”

Another potential Bitcoin escalate

A common thread connecting these significant rallies is to reduce the expectations of the expansion of the federal reserve policy and initially low demand for Bitcoin Bulls. When these factors coincide with solid retail data, they create ideal conditions for Bitcoin Bull Run, because traders are cautious about possible economic crises.

Looking to the future, the chairman of Fed Powell is to speak on June 18 after the Central Bank interest rates. Additional key dates include the Beige Book edition July 16 and the economic symposium Jackson Hole from August 21. Monitoring of retail data in the USA for June 17, and for June, July 15, will also be critical.

This article is used for general information purposes and should not be and should not be treated as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are themselves and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.