Bitcoin historically has a tendency to have a tough time in September, as it often delivers negative profits to traders. Despite the gloomy trend, the current BTC price forecast is surprisingly rosy, predicting a 30% gain by October 1, 2024. But will this bullish forecast hold, or is Bitcoin in for another bearish trade in the coming weeks?
BTC prices have been unable to sustain above $60,000. The coin last received a psychological rejection on August 27. It then underwent a rapid 10% correction over the next two days. This decline helped wipe out $140 million in leveraged BTC long positions. Speculators are now joining the chorus of many wondering: why not Bitcoin exceed $60,000?
A mix of indicators
Still, on-chain evidence suggests otherwise. Santiment reported $4.2 billion in profits from cryptocurrency trading in August 2024. Despite the significant profit generation, whale transactions — vast transfers of $100,000 or more — fell to their lowest levels in nearly four years, suggesting that huge players are holding onto their cryptocurrencies in anticipation of a price rally.
This Bitcoin supply on exchanges also fell to its lowest level in months. Typically, when supply on exchanges starts to fall, it’s a sign of a bull market. Fewer Bitcoins on exchanges means fewer people wanting to sell them. Theoretically, that could drive up their price.
But there’s a catch: Spot Bitcoin ETFs that were supposed to herald unprecedented institutional inflows have seen disappointing outflows. Some analysts make sure that ETF outflows are always a lagging indicator, as bearish sentiment after major news events usually bounces back later. However, such outflows only add more ambiguity, and traders are simply left wondering whether this promise of institutional demand will ever come true or simply fade away.
ETF Outflows and Time-honored Markets
In addition, established finance is contributing to Bitcoin’s current quagmire. Concerns from conventional financial players have led to the rejection of the crypto asset at $61,000. They are concerned about its massive reliance on technology companies, especially those based on artificial intelligence. This has increased pessimism, which is in line with market expectations for a 100% drop in interest rates in September.
Bitcoin’s recent price swings have been in lockstep with the S&P 500, underscoring the increasingly correlated nature of cryptocurrencies and established markets. This could mean that Bitcoin’s future is tied to the broader economy—for better or worse.
Bitcoin: Time to Buy?
At the time of writing this text, BTC price was $57,515, On a 24-hour and weekly basis, there was a decline of 1.5% and 10.3%, respectively, according to Coingecko data.
Though statistics in chain show promise, the prevailing mood is far from sanguine. By October, the latest CoinCodex Bitcoin price forecast predicts a price of 40%. This is quite significant. Their technical indicators show a bearish stance, however, with the Fear and Greed Index coming in at Fearful, at 26.
Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView
