Key points:

• Impoverished work and consumer data often precede bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to predict future economic stimuli programs.

• Opening of work fell in March to 7.2 million compared to the forecast of 7.5 million, and consumers trust reached the lowest level since January 2021.

• If the patterns passed, Bitcoin could meet by mid -July and probably reach USD 140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as the main impact on cryptocurrency prices. In general, Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins work poorly when investors are afraid that employment and consumer data weaken.

According to the JOLTS report of the US Department of Labor published on April 29, job offers in March approached their lowest levels in four years. American employers published 7.2 million free jobs in March, below 7.5 million, which economists forecast. Meanwhile, consumer trust in the US has fallen in the fifth of a month in April, reaching the lowest point since January 2021.

Determining conditions escalate the chances that central banks will introduce economic stimuli means, which will cause a general impact on uncertain cryptocurrency markets. Usually, additional liquidity encourages investing in risk assets, such as Bitcoin, because more capital flows into the economy.

Future expectations are more essential than today’s penniless economic data

Last time the US experienced a decrease in work and weakened consumer trust from January to June 2024. Over the next three months, the price of Bitcoin increased between 53,000 to 66,000 USD. Then the 60% rally began in mid -October, exceeding BTC above 100,000 USD. The final result was positive, but this effect took over 105 days on the cryptocurrency market.

Although these conditions may initially seem disturbing, the weaker workforce and consumer sentiments are usually backwards. Financial markets and companies base their decisions on expectations regarding future economic growth, not just earlier data. In addition, the improvement of sentiments among cryptographic investors usually appears after some confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why a 105-day delay is not unusual.

Before 2024, a similar situation took place between January and June 2023, with a decrease in both labor market data and consumer trust. The next four months were complex because the Bitcoin price dropped by 18% to USD 25,000. At the end of October, it took 115 days to recover to USD 30,500. However, the next two months were very positive, with BTC gaining 45%, reaching USD 43,900.

The last time in the last eight years, when both the labor market and consumer trust have suffered significantly from February 2020 to May 2020, immediately after the implementation of Covid-19 blockages. During this period, Bitcoin briefly fell below USD 4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer consolidation period was expected before investors regained trust in cryptographic markets.

Related: Bitcoin acts as a “value magazine in which it is” among the chaos of Trump’s policy: Nydig

Can Bitcoin reach $ 140,000 until October?

Looking back at the macroeconomic data, it did not have a major impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, because its price increased from 8,900 to USD 10,600, which is an escalate in 20%. However, the next 60 days brought an impressive 85% rally to USD 19,700. For the third time, weaker data on labor and consumers seemed to appear before the rally at bitcoin prices.

While the time between the lowest point of economic conditions and the Bitcoin rally ran from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. Therefore, if American job offers and consumer trust improve from April 2025, probably Bitcoin will start to escalate by mid -July. If the story repeats, it may mean a minimum goal of USD 140,000 by October 2025, but positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this perspective.

This article is used for general information purposes and should not be and should not be treated as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are themselves and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.